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After the severe recession in several major US economic recovery path

[] New crown epidemic so economists off guard, fast development of the epidemic situation, the uncertainty of economic forecasts have become big let impossible.

Faced with the sudden impact, engaged in professional research and analysis of economists forecast the prospects for the US economy is no longer sure.

National Association for Business Economics decided not to release the US economic outlook routine quarterly survey.

Economists expect the US economy will fall into a severe recession in the first half of this year, the second half began a modest recovery. More US economic data is much worse than the market expected. Fed global economic conditions survey report recently released May 27 showed the new crown epidemic led to the US economy, "chaos", a sharp decline in economic activity in most districts, employment continued to decline.

  Since late last year the United States declared into the longest period of economic expansion in history, many economists are predicting a US recession next round when it will come, but no one expected would come so fast, but I did not expect lead will the recession is epidemic. Even the authoritative international organizations International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted that the global economy will grow by% this year, the US economy will grow by 2%. But in the April release of the latest "World Economic Outlook Report" in the, IMF expects the global economy will shrink sharply by 3%, the US economy will shrink%, which shows the huge impact of the epidemic. US Department of Commerce released the latest 上海干磨推荐 forecast data show that the first quarter of this year, US real gross domestic product to shrink% annual rate, the highest of the international financial crisis triggered the biggest drop since the recession. Most economists believe that the US recession will be the worst scenario in the second quarter, the decline rate may be as high annual rate of 30-40 percent, but with the outbreak of mitigation and "home made" and other restrictive measures gradually lifted, the US economy is expected to rebound in the second half. US economic outlook still depends on how the epidemic situation is developing. Given that the US epidemic situation of high uncertainty, previously headquartered in New York, the world’s largest corporate research will give the US economic recovery predicted four scenarios: First, the rapid recovery.

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Add a new crown assume the number of confirmed cases reached a peak in mid-April, beginning of May to resume operations and catering industry, this year the US economy will shrink%, which is the most optimistic scenario. But this result now has been unable to achieve.

  Second, "V-type" recovery.

Assuming that new cases of the number of cases peaked in early May, the US economy into a deep recession in the second quarter, but rebounded strongly in the third quarter, the year the US economy will shrink%. Third, "W-type" recovery.

Fall prevention and control efforts to assume epidemic rebound fails to start in October to take strict measures to control the epidemic again, the US economy experienced recovery in the third quarter, fourth quarter, shrinking again, the year 上海spa会所推荐 the US economy will shrink%. Fourth, "U-type" recovery.

The US government adopted policies such as social alienation helps flatten the epidemic curve, but the economy continued weakness in the third quarter.

Compared with the "V-type" and "W-type" scenarios, "U-type" recovery will be slower, the year the US economy will shrink%.

  World Conference Board did not give a forecast of the probability of each scenario, but the "U-type" recovery as a reference case forecast. In this scenario, the annual rate, the US economy will shrink in the first quarter%% contraction in the second quarter, third quarter growth% growth% in the fourth quarter.

  Well-known intellectual Kubidesen the Institute for International Economics expect the US economy is most likely a "check mark type" recovery similar to the Nike brand trademark, that the US economy will not rebound after experiencing a sharp fall immediately to the level before the outbreak, but a gradual recovery. New York Fed President John Williams believes that even if the end of the epidemic, and gradually lift the restrictions, the public airplane, concerts and other gathering activities will remain cautious, demand is expected to remain weak, the US economy needs more time It will return to normal levels. But Trump declared that the United States government insisted the epidemic curve has leveled off, called on the states in phases from May to "reset" the economy, and still expect the US economy will start to "V-type" rebound in the summer.

US Treasury Secretary Mu Nuqin said most of the US economy will return to normal at the end of August.

However, economists and health experts warned that the epidemic has not been brought under control in a hurry to cancel "home made" would be very hasty decision, and now return to work the complex production premature.

  Some economists worry whether the epidemic led to the US corporate debt default or bankruptcy occurs tide, the second wave of the epidemic is still new crown, the US economy is likely to shrink again in the end of this year, the possibility of "W-type" recovery is on the rise.

Robert Redfield, director of the US Center for Disease Control warned that the new virus could hit the US crown again in the winter, the second wave of the epidemic may be the new crown and flu season coming at the same time, the "more devastating."

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